Photo Attribution: Nielsen Network & O’Colly
All we’ve heard from the media, fans, and even coaches and players: gotta get better at defending the pass, we’ll be all right if we do that!
Is that true though?
Let’s go back and look at OSU through four games last year vs. OSU through four games this year1.
2011
| Against... | Yards per play |
| The pass | 7.54 |
| The rush | 2.62 |
2012
| Against... | Yards per play |
| The pass | 7.36 |
| The rush | 3.68 |
“Better teams in 2011!” you say?
I guess, kind of. Average national rank in ypp of 2011 opponents was 33. Average this year was 42 (again, throwing out all the Savannah stats).
The main reason we’re 2-2 this year as opposed to 4-0 last year, despite being better against the pass in 2012:
2011: 3.25 turnovers/game through four games.
2012: .667 turnover/game through three games (throwing out Savannah).
Bill Young said something interesting in his presser yesterday:
We’re playing a defense that’s designed to stop the run, and you’ve got to stop the run before you do anything else. We feel good about those guys.
That’s all fine and good, but as fans let’s not throw the secondary under the bus just yet.
- As what I felt like was a fair adjustment, I threw out the Savannah State game. ↩
Are we really going to make excuses for the Defense?
Really?!?!?
1. We could not get off the field on 3rd down against Texas. We let Ash destroy us on the deep ball, seriously when did one of our all world cornerbacks make a play against Texas. I sure didn’t see them deflect any passes or come up with any big plays. Don’t forget they dropped another touchdown in the end zone when the receiver blew by Gilbert.
2. Arizona game – The entire Defense got torched. Again we make a mediocre passer look like an all-american by giving up 68% completion, 320 yards, and no interceptions. D-backs were nowhere to be seen all game.
3. Lets not use the yards per play as the end-all be-all stat for everything. I wonder how we are doing in allowing 3rd down conversions and points per possession. Yes the turnovers were a saving grace last year and created the perfect storm to get our offensive back on the field, but how about we force a three and out every once in awhile.
If you want to throw some blame around on Bill Young and the coaching staff, I would be more accepting of going that route. For the record I do think Young is a great coach and can get us going in the right direction as the season progresses. But man, he thoroughly got outcoached in the texas game. In the first half when he brought pressure, Texas was ready with either a screen or a quick hook or out, thus we kept giving up 1st downs on third and long. It just seemed like Texas had the right play called execution wise on nearly every crucial play.
10% better on offensive third downs this year, 3% better on defense….
Orangestateofmind – That’s the biggest bunch of whining I’ve read in quite a while. You should be a Longhorn fan the way you throw a couple of info nibblets into the FOUR paragraphs.
Kyle simply stated that the D is VERY COMPARABLE to last season, EXCEPT our Turn Over margin is horrible.
I was trying to respond to Kyle saying we should not throw the Dbacks under the bus. Our D needs to improve, bottom line. Sorry if it sounded like whining, but I was surprised to see a post like this.
simply look at 1st, 2nd and 3rd down. yards per play. when young puts in his beloved “prevent” defense the rushing and passing yards per play go through the roof. will be the same until young retires or gundy stops.
The practical issue with yards per play statistics is simple: if they had 10 plays at 4 ypp, they have 40 yards. If our ypp is 3, but they run 15 plays, they have 45 yards. As Orange already stated; when you don’t stop them on 3rd and 4th down, they get a lot more plays, even at a great YPP defensive stat, and still beat your ass…..we either improve our 3rd down defense DRAMATICALLY, or we are going to have to be happy with 4-6 losses this year….and I would NOT be happy….and I would be ready to drive the bus…..
I’m more concerned about the big plays. Feels like we have given up way more plays this year of 10+ yards, even though we didn’t do much of that against Az or ULL.
You have to have superior athletes to run a defense like every fan wants us to have. (look at bama they put all their focus on defense and they have a very mediocre offense. priorities priorities priorities.)The bottom line is yes our talent is getting better but it just is not there yet to have a defense like we want. I dont know if we will ever have the defense we want because were in the big 12 and we focus on offense.
no no no…. Brown and Gilbert aren’t superior athletes?? come on. it isn’t the players. it’s the scheme. 3rd and 5 with a 10 yard cushion given = 1st down every time. we suck in this area. change the scheme.
Arizona game was penalties and turnovers. The defense actually did an admirable job for the most part…see this post…
http://www.cowboysrideforfree.com/2012/9/10/3308473/upon-further-review-oklahoma-states-defense-not-so-shabby-after-all
And to quote myself specifically from that post…
“And while the offense was busy stumbling, the defense held Arizona to 3 consecutive FG’s (2 of which came on short fields) and a punt. Despite not creating a single turnover (Az fumbled once and recovered), the defense held 3 drives to FG’s, forced 4 punts, and 1 turnover on downs. Eight of the Wildcats drives in the first 3 quarters resulted in 9 points, and I’m not even including 2 more forced punts on Arizona’s first two drives of the 4th quarter.”
Texas was a different set of problems…more on the defense (3rd downs stops & 4 big pass plays)…but the offense can’t settle for those 3 FG’s. They should have turned at least 1, if not 2, into TD’s. And there’s your ballgame.
So I would have to say I am with you, Kyle, to some extent. Still think the defense has to get off the field on 3rd downs if they aren’t going to produce the TO’s. One or the other.
And I didn’t mention the TD on the KO return.
You cannot base your entire defensive theory around creating turnovers. Turnovers are being at the right place at the right time, coordination, and luck. Defensive plays put them in the right place, great players have coordination (and strength and athleticism), and luck is just luck.
If you base your entire scheme on “bend, don’t break, make turnovers” then guess what, when you break, you need lots of turnovers. When don’t get turn overs, you can’t bend as much.
With this years low turnover margin, we would need to cut the YPP by something like 30% to break even.
How is OSU’s 2011 vs 2012 “Points Per Drive Allowed”?
2011 – 1.84
2012 – 2.17
Great call, and just calls more attention to the lack of turnovers issue.
From Football Outsiders, we are the 102 ranked defense and the 5th ranked offense based on their efficiency rankings which attempts to gauge how successful each drive is at stopping or scoring points. I believe it is a fair assessment of what we have seen so far to call the defense out. It’s definitely a team game and I agree with the comments about converting a FG to TD and the kick return. At the end of the day we still need to get stops and get off the field on D. Also forcing texas to attempt any FG’s would have been huge because they were with their backup kicker. I don’t know how often Mack goes for fourth down when he is FG range but he did a couple times against us (which they converted) and our D gave up the touchdowns. We are going to have to slow down the likes of K-state, OU, West Virginia, Tech or we are realistically looking at going 7-5 and all we will have are excuses and what-ifs.
+1
I really do think the problem is scheme. It’s about playing so far back to keep plays in front of you, that you give up easy outs to the first down marker. Saw it last year, seeing it again this year. The difference, as you mentioned Kyle, is that the turnovers are not there to compensate this year. It seems to me that the success at turnovers last year effectively masked the poor scheming. This year they aren’t so lucky.
Here are a few thoughts/questions. First, we fans have to trust the coaches. They are around these guys day in and day out. If the coaches feel they need to keep the play in front of them, I am betting that is what is best. Second, why does the OSU defense need to keep the play in front them? I don’t think its speed.
Third, what signal are the D-backs missing when they are watching the receiver to know the ball is in the air? The Texas D-back did not turn his head, but reached up and got his hands on the ball anyway.
Stats are for losers. Base our defense with what you see with your eyes, not some numbers in a box score. When you do that you should easily recognize this defense isn’t any good ESPECIALLY the secondary.
Our obvious saving grace last year was turnover margin. Without turnovers the defense sucks. Nothing new there.
Unless this defense starts playing a hell of a lot better or starts forcing turnovers, this team will finish 6-6.
I concur that the points per drive is likely a much more telling stat than the yards per play. The bend but don’t break defense does make the offense use more plays which creates more opportunities for turnovers, however I think it can work against us by allowing the offense to develop a rhythm as we give up first downs. Ash and the Arizona QB both got in to a a rhythm against us and got more confident as the game progressed.
Yes, our secondary looks atrocious this year, but they’re not getting any help up front. Besides the 2 sacks on Ash, I don’t remember him ever feeling much pressure, especially on 3rd or 4th down. Most D1 quarterbacks are going to make good decisions and find open receivers with all the time in the world.