Odds Are a-Changin’

Kyle Porter —  August 21, 2012 — 8 Comments

NCAA Football: Oklahoma State at TexasPhoto Attribution: US Presswire

Well this is certainly interesting. When I wrote my early season odds to win the Big 12 post a month ago, OSU was 18-1 to win the Big 12. I thought that was a little bit high and that there was a lot of value in them at that spot.

I looked again yesterday and OSU is 8-1.

In fact here’s how the entire Big 12 has changed since July 17.

TeamOld OddsNew Odds
OU1-11-1
Texas4-14-1
West Virginia6-15-1
Oklahoma State18-18-1
TCU11/29-1
Kansas State12-116-1
Texas Tech30-130-1
Baylor40-140-1
Iowa State65-175-1
Kansas100-1150-1

OSU claims the biggest increase in odds and Iowa State, Kansas State, and TCU experienced the biggest drop.

Frankly, I never really understood why TCU was ahead of OSU and West Virginia to begin with.

OSU though, I can’t say I understand the massive jump either. What happened between July 17th and now to justify the change? Was it all the glowing articles on Wes Lunt? Maybe, but is that enough to make them a frontrunner in a crowded front of the race?

We’ll see, I liked 18-1 much better though.

Kyle Porter

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Creator and editor of Pistols Firing. I love jump balls, Dana Holgorsen, and Kevin Durant 30-footers. I started all this.

8 responses to Odds Are a-Changin’

  1. Sorry Kyle, no opinion on the odds, just wanted you to know that commenting has been permanently disabled for me from my desktop at work. The comments system you settled on is the culprit, as is is blocked now. I’m typing this from my phone. Nothing to do about it I guess, just weird that after months and months and now suddenly it’s blocked.

    • Hmmm, that’s really weird. I’ll look into it.

    • I updated it, let me know if that worked…

      • No go Kyle. It has to do with the websense filter at my job… I can see all the comments made, but the box to type one is blocked and says “This content has been blocked by your organization.” Category: Blogs and personal sites.
        I doubt there’s anything that you can do with it, it’s just ironic that we were discussing how many different commenting systems have been used lately, and the one you finally settle on is now unavailable for me Lol.
        It’s not a big deal, if I just HAVE to comment I can always do it on my phone, or at home, like right now.

  2. Between July 17th and today, I placed $800,000 on that 18/1 line. Seemed like a good investment. That was probably the reason

  3. You also have to take into account perceptions of the other teams changing. Maybe they felt teams that were valued higher do not deserve those odds, which in turn makes the Pokes chances better. I agree though, with the uncertainty of this season, I would rather be an underdog.

  4. SWAT (Silly Wild Ass Theory): A college head football coach risks A LOT to step up and say his new unproven 18 year old Freshman quarterback looks really good. Gundy is not prone to wild praise (same coach that said before the OU game last year that Alabama deserved to be above us); and the bookmakers may be looking at this and thinking “maybe they really do know something we don’t”…..

    Or it could just be a typo and should have been 18/1 instead of 8/1….LOL

  5. Last year, OSU beat the odds-makers more often than not with the over/ under in points scored. I still get a kick out of it when OSU is able to beat the spread. I imagine that OSU has become a popular pick in Vegas. The odds move in response to the action to better favor the house.