OKC Dave analyzes OSU and Oregon

OKC Dave —  March 19, 2013 — 2 Comments
Photo Attribution: USATSI

Photo Attribution: USATSI

When I completed the bracketology project here a few weeks ago, I promised I would come back with some analysis after the brackets were announced.

Here I am.

I’m bringing back the scatter plots that I used last time. You want to be in the far northeast corner of these charts…teams with good offense and defense reside in that corner. Defense is on the horizontal axis, offense is on the vertical axis. All of these stats are from kenpom.com.

In order to help you compare teams, every chart in this post aside from the last one uses the same scale: 80 to 112 on defense, 88 to 124 on offense.

First, let’s take a look at how Oregon stacks up against 12 seeds from previous years. I plotted every 12 seed from 2009 to 2013:

Screen Shot 2013-03-19 at 2.25.34 PM

Oregon is the green dot. Despite all the fuss about how Oregon was seeded incorrectly, they don’t look completely out of place on this chart. Notably, they have the best defense by a 12 seed in the last five years. But they are also 20 out of 22 teams in offensive efficiency among 12 seeds in this time period. They rank 10 out of 22 in Pomeroy rating in this group.

Now let’s take a look at how OSU stacks up against 5 seeds from 2009 to current:

Screen Shot 2013-03-19 at 2.25.41 PM

OSU is the orange dot. Among this group of 20 teams, OSU has the 6th best defense and the 16th-best offense. OSU and Oregon are really built the same way – good to great defense with an offense that struggles. OSU’s offensive efficiency is 108.4, which roughly correlates to the 12-13 seed level. Oregon’s is 104.1, which is in the 15-16 seed area. Clearly, defense carries both of these teams. OSU’s overall Pomeroy rating ranks 11th in this group of 20 teams.

I’ll be back later breaking down each region with scatter plots and looking at the top 20 overall teams.

  • Sean

    Very nice work as usual. There has been a lot of talk this year about men’s hoops being down. Where are the four dots for 12s and 5s this year a opposed to the previous four years? We may be 11 out of 20, but according to everybody we are the top 5 seed in the tourney this year.

    • http://gravatar.com/okcdave okcdave

      It’s probably easiest to answer that question this way: here are the rankings by Pomeroy ratings for 12 seeds from 2009 to current:

      1) Utah St. – 2010
      2) Utah St. – 2011
      3) Clemson – 2011
      4) Wisconsin – 2009
      5) Texas El Paso – 2010
      6) Mississippi – 2013
      7) California – 2012
      8) Arizona – 2009
      9) Cornell – 2010
      10) Oregon – 2013
      11) Richmond – 2011
      12) Long Beach St. – 2012
      13) Virginia Commonwealth – 2012
      14) Akron – 2013
      15) Harvard – 2012
      16) South Florida – 2012
      17) California – 2013
      18) UAB – 2011
      19) Northern Iowa – 2009
      20) Western Kentucky – 2009
      21) Memphis – 2011
      22) New Mexico St. – 2010

      And here are the rankings for 5 seeds in the same time period:

      1) Wisconsin – 2013
      2) Butler – 2010
      3) Wichita St. – 2012
      4) Purdue – 2009
      5) Texas A&M – 2010
      6) Vanderbilt – 2012
      7) Temple – 2010
      8) Michigan St. – 2010
      9) New Mexico – 2012
      10) Oklahoma St. – 2013
      11) Virginia Commonwealth – 2013
      12) Illinois – 2009
      13) West Virginia – 2011
      14) Arizona – 2011
      15) Utah – 2009
      16) Kansas St. – 2011
      17) Nevada Las Vegas – 2013
      18) Vanderbilt – 2011
      19) Florida St. – 2009
      20) Temple – 2012

      Oregon is 10th in their group; we are 10th in ours.