Preview: Oklahoma State-Baylor

Whether you believed this day would happen or not, Oklahoma State is 10-0 and hosting a one-loss Baylor team. It appears the tables have turned since the 2013 matchup that featured the one-loss Cowboys spoiling the undefeated season for the Bears with a 49-17 victory.

Last week, OSU played its usual underwhelming win by one score road game, while Baylor got its playoff hopes dashed by Oklahoma in a 44-34 loss. The Bears won eight straight to start the year in blowout fashion. Obviously the fortune of Baylor’s season changed when Seth Russell sustained a season-ending neck injury in a 45-27 win over Iowa State.  

Baylor offense

Barring any late-breaking developments, it looks like Jarrett Stidham will be under center for the Bears after injuring his back last Saturday.

The freshman put up good numbers in a too-close-for-comfort victory over Kansas State. 23-33 for 419 yards and 3 TDs is an impressive performance for anyone in their first career start, but it needs to be put in some perspective. K-State has as many conference wins as their in-state rival this season and they also are ranked as the ninth-best pass defense in the conference. Still, going on the road as a freshman in that environment is really good.

Last week was a different story for Stidham. I didn’t think he played poorly in that game, but ultimately Baylor is not going to beat a team that is better than them if they turn the ball over. I don’t see a 6:30 kickoff at Boone’s house in November being a friendly environment for a freshman quarterback.

If Stidham is uncomfortable in the pocket then the bad throws will come. We learned this against TCU, but the only difference is Stidham doesn’t have the ability to make plays outside of the pocket like Boykin does. Also, a sore back paired with temperatures dropping into the 20’s doesn’t seem like a good mix for Stidham if he takes a few hits.

The Sooners also did an incredible job of limiting Baylor’s big play offense, especially wide receiver Corey Coleman. In every Big 12 game this season before last Saturday, Coleman had caught at least two touchdown passes, but was held to three catches for 51 yards and no scores in the loss.

I think it’s unrealistic to think Kevin Peterson will limit Coleman to those numbers, but not impossible. However, last year in Waco, Coleman had a modest 75 yards on three catches including a 54-yard touchdown on the second drive of the game.

The most impressive thing about Coleman’s season isn’t the fact that he has 20 TDs through nine games; it’s the fact that he has 20 TDs on only 61 catches. Once every three times he touches the ball he’s in the end zone! To put that in perspective, J.W. Walsh has touched the ball 78 times (not counting handoffs) this season and has accounted for the same number of scores.

With a freshman quarterback starting in a hostile environment, Baylor’s running game becomes increasingly important. In the last two games, OSU has shown an inability to wrap up shifty running backs, such as Aaron Green and Kavontae Trurpin of TCU and Iowa State’s Mike Warren in the last two weeks.

Junior running back Shock Linwood has already eclipsed the 1,000-yard mark for the season and only needs 104 yards to set a new career high (1,252 last year). Linwood comes into Saturday with a jaw-dropping 7.4 yards per carry. Bringing Linwood to the ground is a necessity for Glenn Spencer and Co. on Saturday.  

Oklahoma State Offense

As someone who was highly-critical of Mason Rudolph for poor decisions making earlier in the year (Texas, West Virginia), I have been pleasantly surprised with his efficiency lately.

Since he threw three interceptions and just looked poor for no particular reason against West Virginia, Rudolph has completed 63.9percent of his passes and has 9 TDs to a lone interception in that four game stretch.

Last week, James Washington showed us that he still has a human side with only 48 yards receiving against Iowa State. Baylor does not have the type of secondary that will keep a lid on Washington. In terms of passing yardage per game, the Bears rank second in the conference, but they’ve surrendered 20 TDs, playing one fewer game than most of the league.

Chris Carson ran the ball effectively for the first time in the conference season. With the way Rudolph has been throwing the ball lately I’ll take 70 yards per game from Carson. It won’t break any records, but the team is 10-0 without running the ball all season.

The Cowboys can’t afford an early deficit against an electric offense like Baylor. If the energy in the stadium is anything like it was two years ago, a sluggish start seems unlikely.  

Prediction: OSU 42, Baylor 31