Photo Attribution: US Presswire
Grantland posted the college football over/unders the other day, let’s take a gander at some Big 12 teams and where OSU fell.
First, a little context.
Line – The number of wins for a team. You can bet over or under this number.
-105 - You must bet $105 to win $100 plus your original bet of $105 for $205 total.
115 – You must bet $100 to win $115 plus your original bet of $100 for a $215 total.
EVEN – You must bet $100 to win $100 plus your original bet of $100 for a $200 total.
Basically the numbers with a – mean you must bet that much to win $100 and the numbers with a + mean you must bet $100 to win that much.
Click to enlarge
8.5 is absolutely the right number for this OSU team. With an unknown commodity at the most important position, Vegas is probably losing its mind about where to set this but they did a good job.
The fact that the over is a better deal (bet $100 to win $100 vs. betting $120 to win $100 on the under) means that Vegas thinks people are going to go under on this squad. With my life on the line I probably would go under1 but that doesn’t mean I’m not still picking us to win nine games!
As for the other Big 12 teams…
That OU number is absurd but it’s going to get bet because, well, because people like this actually exist.
The Texas number seems about right and I will take all the overs all the time on Iowa State at 4.5. ALL OF THEM.
- Basically betting that Lunt acts like a freshman at QB instead of a sophomore or junior. ↩
You don’t have it on there, but TCU is at 7.5, K-State is at 7, and WVU is at 8.5
Oh yeah, and Mizzou is at 6.5 and A&M is at 7…..that SEC move is looking smart lol
K-State at 7 is absurd coming off a 10-win season.
I’m not so sure…I consider Miami, @OU, @Iowa St., @ WVU, TTU, OSU, @TCU, @Baylor:disqus , and Texas all potential losses for them. Them going 4-5 in that stretch is not that absurd….
Yes they’re “potential” losses, but that’s the wrong adjective for this conversation. The term “likely” is a better fit. They’re likely losses are at OU and…oh…that’s it. Miami was 6-6 last year, including a loss at home to K-State. Don’t base your decision on their game with Iowa State on what happened to us in Ames last year. WVU isn’t as strong as everyone is making them out to be. Tech, dude come on (KSU won in Lubbock last year). OSU, yes a potential loss but our Pokes will be the underdog. Should be interesting to see how good TCU is 6 games into Big 12 conference play. I might be irrationally against Baylor having any success this year. K-State hasn’t lost to Texas since 2003 (although no, they have not played them every year).
If you look at potential losses, you would never bet on any over/under win totals.
I didn’t think that them going 7-5 (5-4) is likely at all..actually think that would be the absolute worst they coudl do this year. All I was saying is it wouldn’t be the most shocking thing I’ve seen (Texas going 5-7 two years ago). And as far as @Iowa St. they just seem to always knock someone off at home they shouldn’t so I threw in in there as “potential” losses. And didn’t K-State need a 2nd half comeback last year against Tech?
I get what you’re saying but for the sake of the o/u win total, it’s crazy. When you say that 7-5 is the absolute worst they could do this year, that backs my point up. Think about how confident you are in them winning 8 games (minimum over). Then think about how confident you are in them winning (maximum under). Huge difference, no?
Maybe I’m unrealistically high on Wes Lunt, but I don’t see any team on the schedule that makes me nervous this year. It’s a combination of things – familiarity with the players on this team, knowing the quality depth behind each position, faith in the coaching staff, and Coach Glass’ strength and conditioning system.
Also, there is not a team in the Big 12 who does not have warts, blemishes, and question marks. Who on the schedule really scares you? I think we have a nice chance to win them all, but expect tighter games with lower winning margins.
OU at OU, WVU, at KSU, and Texas.