Photo Attribution: US Presswire
Breaking news: OSU is starting a true freshman at quarterback. Being a stathead I decided to take a look at what that might mean for young Weston.
I took all quarterbacks who averaged at least 20 passes per game over the past 10 years of college football (this is a group of 894 individual seasons). I separated them by classification, then looked at the best, worst, and average QBs for each class by QB rating. No, QB rating is not a perfect metric…but everyone knows it and it’s easily accessible.
Why did I do this? Well, I wanted to see how the average freshman quarterback compared to the average sophomore QB (and so on). I thought that grabbing the best and worst in each category would make this a little more interesting.
Here we go, starting with the young guys.
| Freshman | Name (school) | Year | Rating | Stats |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Best | Sam Bradford (OU) | 2007 | 176.5 | 237/341 (69.5%) for 3,121 yards (9.2/attempt) -- 36 TD, 8 INT |
| Best Poke | Donovan Woods (!) | 2004 | 142.6 | 97/187 (51.9%) for 1,628 yards (8.7/attempt) -- 13 TD, 5 INT |
| Average | Kerry Meier (Kansas) | 2006 | 123.4 | 104/184 (56.5%) for 1,193 yards (6.5/attempt) -- 13 TD, 10 INT |
| Worst | Zack Asack (Duke) | 2005 | 95.4 | 90/180 (50%) for 966 yards (5.4/attempt) -- 5 TD, 8 INT |
Look at Bradford. 36 TDs and only 8 interceptions. This is the holy grail of freshman seasons. See what you can do with that, Wes!
In all seriousness, I expect him to be among the top 20 in this group (yes, I’m basing this solely on hype). That would put him in the same list as Colt McCoy, Kellen Moore, Kevin Kolb, Case Keenum, Andrew Luck, Bob Griffin, and Russell Wilson.
Donovan should have an asterisk next to his name because he only had 16 attempts per game, but he put up some nice numbers in addition to his 541 yards and 10 touchdowns on the ground.
Zack Asack was kicked off of the Duke football team the following season for plagiarism and for being a terrible quarterback.
| Sophomore | Name (School) | Year | Rating | Stats |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Best | Sam Bradford (OU) | 2008 | 180.8 | 328/483 (67.9%) for 4,720 yards (9.8/attempt) -- 50 TD, 8 INT |
| Best Poke | Zac Robinson | 2007 | 149.0 | 201/333 (60.4%) for 2,824 yards (8.5/attempt) -- 23 TD, 9 INT |
| Average | Vince Young (Texas) | 2004 | 128.4 | 148/250 (59.2%) for 1,849 yards (7.4/attempt) -- 12 TD, 11 INT |
| Worst | Daniel Evans (NC State) | 2006 | 102.8 | 163/307 (53.1%) for 1,843 yards (6.0/attempt) -- 6 TD, 11 INT |
Once again Bradford leads the way among sophomores with a ridiculous 50 touchdowns and only 8 picks. By the way, second and third on the sophomore list are Tebow and Luck. Not bad company.
I was a little surprised to see Vince Young as an “average” QB as a sophomore, but his passing stats are pretty, well, average.
| Junior | Name (School) | Year | Rating | Stats |
| Best | Bob Griffin (Baylor) | 2011 | 189.5 | 291/402 (72.4%) for 4,293 yards (10.7/attempt) 37 TD, 6 INT |
| Best Poke | Zac Robinson | 2008 | 166.8 | 204/314 (65.0%) for 3,064 yards (9.8/attempt) -- 25 TD, 10 INT |
| Average | Josh Fields (OSU) | 2003 | 129.8 | 184/338 (54.4%) for 2,494 yards (7.4/attempt) -- 21 TDs, 12 INT |
| Worst | Casey Paus (Washington) | 2004 | 81.2 | 116/274 (42.3%) for 1,476 yards (5.4/attempt) -- 5 TD, 17 INT |
Our good friend Bob Griffin had a great junior year, including a zero TD, one INT game against Oklahoma State. Just tossing that in.
I expected to see Weeden lead the way among OSU QBs, but it is Zac with a really great junior season – the 9th best season among juniors on this list, in fact.
Josh fields was not in fact the average QB, but he was very close so I thought I would throw him on here as another reference point.
Congratulations go out to Casey Paus, who has the absolute worst QB rating among all 892 seasons on the entire list (all classifications). I mean, wow…those numbers are breathtaking. What must it have been like to be a Washington fan that year? His worst game that season was at Oregon: 14 for 36 for 211 yards, 0 touchdowns and 4 INT. *shudder*
| Seniors | Name (School) | Year | Rating | Stats |
| Best | Russell Wilson (Wisconsin) | 2011 | 191.8 | 225/309 (72.8%) for 3,175 yards (10.3/attempt) -- 33 TD, 4 INT |
| Best Poke | Brandon Weeden | 2011 | 159.8 | 408/564 (72.3%) for 4,727 yards (8.4/attempt) -- 37 TD, 13 INT |
| Average | Nate Hybl (OU) | 2002 | 133.7 | 209/363 (57.6%) for 2,538 yards (7.0/attempt) -- 24 TD, 8 INT |
| Worst | Shane Boyd (Kentucky) | 2004 | 96.8 | 138/263 (52.5%) for 1,328 yards -- 7 TD, 9 INT |
Russell Wilson has the highest QB rating on the whole list. I’ll bet you didn’t think a Big 10 quarterback would have that honor.
Here’s your Weeden appearance. His yards per attempt and INT percentage really hurt him in the QB rating calculation.
Hybl was a few QBs away from the average, but I put him on here so I could link to this classic.
Any stats on true freshmen vs. RS-freshmen?
Nope. The NCAA doesn’t break it down that way so the work would have to be done manually.
Young had a huge progression sophomore to junior year. He wasn’t even that impressive first half of sophomore year.
Over/under on Wes Lunt:
Attempts: 475
Completions: 330
Yards: 3,900
TD: 26
INT: 10
Rushing yards: -57
Weigh in everyone. Thoughts?
Under
Under
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Over
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I’m going to base my choices on a 13 game season (includes a bowl game)
Over
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Under…wait, since this is a negative #, is under less or more negative? Just kidding, I think he will surprise us with his mobility. Weeden spoiled us…
Lunt was used to tossing it around 40-50 times a game in HS, and he’s accurate, so I don’t see any hesitation in Monken to turn him loose, unless he starts doing his best impersonation of “Bob” Griffin vs OSU.
And it’s time for me to rein in my optimism…
Based on 12-game regular season:
Under
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Under (won’t avg more than 2 TDs a game)
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Over
“Bob” made me laugh…
And that video is priceless!
Hey where’s the daily bullets? C’mon Kyle, it’s like 11Am already!
They’ve been up for three hours…you can’t see them?
Had same issue…website wasn’t updating in either IE or Chrome. Cleared cache, cookies, history, to no avail. Now it’s fine.