Photo Attribution: Icon SMI
Ah, it’s an easy narrative for all 870 Heisman voters plus the 54 former winners who have a vote (or 53, that Reggie Bush ballot probably gets a little awkward this time of year).
That narrative is: uber-talented dual-threat QB rises from the ashes in Waco, Texas to drag one of the country’s worst football programs back to prominence.
In fact, it’s almost too easy. But is it really that simple?
The nation is drooling over #10 right now and what he’s done for what used to be a horrendous football program, but does he deserve the Heisman? Let’s take a closer look.
Nolan sent me this email the other day:
QB #1: 273/404 (67.6%) for 3,105 YDS, 33 TDs, 9 wins (6-2 in conference)
QB #2: 245/336 (72.9%) for 3,572 YDS, 33 TDs, 7 wins (4-3 in conference)
QB #3: 241/343 (70.3%) for 2,937 YDS, 31 TDs, 10 wins (8-1 in conference)
QB #4: 355/486 (73.0%) for 4,111 YDS, 34 TDs, 10 wins (7-1 in conference)
Those quarterbacks in order are: Matt Barkley, Robert Griffin, Andrew Luck, and Brandon Weeden. And somehow, inexplicably, the one with the worst stats and worst record is being lauded as the country’s best.
To be fair, Griffin has 550 yards rushing and 5 TD and has a pair of Heisman moments. I’m not saying he’s not good (because he is), but how quickly we forget about who the frontrunner was just five days ago purchasing his plane ticket to JFK International (and such is the epic trolling of bloggers and sites everywhere).
A few points to accentuate why Weeden shouldn’t be forgotten.
1. If you’re a national pundit and you say OSU’s defense has sucked all year (and if you’re a national pundit, you have said this all year), then you also have to have a reason for their 10-1 record. What is it?
2. Weeden has had two Heisman second halves that have been overshadowed by other stories. He put up a school record in passing yards with 2 TDs and 3 breathtaking drives in College Station which all got overshadowed by the fact that A&M fell apart. He also buried Kansas State repeatedly with an absurd 16-19 for 252 and 2 line in the second half, but 90% of the country was watching a punt, pass, and kick contest down in Tuscaloosa.
3. If Griffin and Weeden switched teams, what would their respective records be? Serious question there.
4. How about the fact that Weeden has more passing yards, more passing TD, a higher completion percentage, more wins, and embarrassed Griffin when they went head-to-head? Oh, but that was luck, right? And I’m not talking about Andrew…
Granted, we’re still two weeks out and nobody knows what’s going to happen. But if OSU beats OU and Weeden has a great game, there’s nothing you can do to convince me that Griffin deserves to go to NYC over him. Nothing.
And while we’re here – how about nobody really mentioning how much the plane crash played into OSU falling on Friday night? It’s not an excuse (and shouldn’t be used as one), but it seems like everybody just glazed over the fact that four people (two of which everybody on the football team probably knew) died the morning of what, to that point, was the biggest game of the year.
Obviously death, and this situation, shouldn’t be used as a crutch (and should never be put on the same plane as winning a stupid bronze trophy), but I also don’t understand why people seem to separate those two events, as if they aren’t inextricably intertwined.
I know the Heisman is very much a visceral award, often given to the nation’s most exciting player and that Weeden is not as exciting as Griffin. But he’s taken shot after shot this season and answered the bell every week until that perfect storm in Ames last Friday. He might not elicit the hyperbole in the blogosphere and Twittersphere that Griffin does, but he’s definitely every bit as worthy of the Heisman trophy.
Thank you for this. Next year we might be looking at each other saying “That Weeden was even better than I thought.”
Griffin hasn’t won it yet, contrary to popular opinion. His runs are very timely – makes a big difference.
OState PR has done a poor job with the Heisman chatter. It’s cool JB gets the chatter, but WR’ers never win.
After Weeden surgically castrates the Sooners he will win the Heisman.
They are ignoring the crash because they have been looking for a reason to drop OSU in the polls since they cracked the top 5
BTW, I don’t agree that R2D2 has the worst stats up there, I think Lucks are the worst. Wd40 has a higher yards per pass, better completion %, more yards and more TD’s than Luck. You have to include INT’s in any QB comparisons too. On the other hand, what % of N64′s stats come after opposing teams have pulled their starters out, and how many minutes has he played?
Why Griffin over Weeden? Because, as you have called it, it’s “Flavor of the Week.” Last week it was Hot Chocolate Cappuccino and this week it’s Spicy Pumpkin with Whipped Creme.
Great read.
What you forgot to mention is that age IS an issue. It gets brought up way too much by national media for it not to be.
Weeden is good, but Griffin is better. Weeden is surrounded by much better talent on offense. Griffin doesn’t have a stout offensive line or a Blackmon, or even a Cooper.
As far as the plane crash, it was tragic yes. But the basketball and football teams are very insulated from each other, so I find it disingenuous to say it had a big effect on the outcome.
Bottom line is the Pokes were caught looking ahead and came out flat. They didn’t get the turnovers that had bailed them out a couple times in the past and it caught up to them.
Can’t believe I’m arguing this, but what about Kendall Wright? Baylor fans like to say he’s as good as Blackmon and he’s definitely better than anyone OSU has other than Blackmon.
OSU did come out flat on Friday, yes, but anyone who thinks the plane crash and that game were mutually exclusive doesn’t know this school very well.
When I think of “supporting cast” I think of more than just “Who is the team’s #2 guy?”. Wright is awesome and, IMO, one step down from Blackmon. But, it is hard to argue against these conclusions:
RB: close (edge to OSU)
OL: OSU – not even close
WR other than Wright or Blackmon: I’ll call it a draw
DL: OSU
LB: OSU
DB/C: OSU
I thought we were just arguing offense?
And even though it doesn’t help my argument, running back is not close.
If you use “total wins” as a stat then you must look at the supporting cast which includes the defense. It goes both ways. Trent Richardson wouldn’t be in the conversation if Alabama had Auburn’s D and 3 or 4 losses, even with the same stats.
True, okay we’re back on the same page then. I wonder what Baylor and OSU’s records would be if they switched defenses…
If they switched defenses?
OSU: 10-1 (total 10-2 if OU has Broyles and Whaley)
Baylor: 8-2 (10-2 total)
OSU’s defense is considerably more talented than Baylor’s. Baylor’s defense for OSU would be good for atleast 1 (maybe 2) losses (probably from games vs. TAMU, OU, or Baylor [with OSU's D]). ISU was a fluke (see Baylor vs. ISU game).
Baylor is one game better with a slighlty better OSU defense IMO. Which game? I say TAMU. That whole game Baylor’s offense was clicking but when they couldn’t keep up with how fast their D was giving up TD passes to Ryan freakin Swope, they left they’re gameplan and tried be heros.
Ironically, the thing that makes both OSU’s D and Baylor’s D look more terrible than they really are is their offense. Both Baylor and OSU are in the bottom 10 in the NCAA in time of possession. The Steeler D would give up 21 points to most Big 12 teams if they had to be on the field that much. The differece between OSU and Baylor’s D is that OSU has enough decent talent that they can afford to put their playmakers in position to make plays. Baylor’s has way too many holes on D and their playmakers (Ahmad Dixon, Elliot Coffee) are being relied on to fill those holes and hopefully only “bend but not break”.
What if Baylor and OSU switch QB?
I think if they switch QBs Baylor is 7-3 and OSU is 9-2. I don’t think OSU wins that A&M game with any QB other than Weeden just because of how icy he was when they were down 17. Granted, Griffin did the same thing against KU, but at KU and at A&M are a lot different…
The basketball and football teams are insulated from each other? Really? Nothing could be further from the truth.
I hate to say it, this may come out wrong but here I go, not totally agreeing with CDG….
I hate hearing people say that the tragic absolutely horrible plane crash is an excuse for the loss. Using this as an excuse is a disservice to those unfortunate people in the plane crash and their families.
Quit using this as an excuse because all you are really doing is flashing a bright sign on the families mourning a tragic event.
We lost. Let’s move on. Honor those who lost their lives by doing your best, not using them as an excuse to lose (or win for that matter).
I agree wholeheartedly with this sentiment but I believe the football team deserves a mulligan. You can’t replay the game, but I believe the outcome should not be weighted as heavily as some of the other games.
Agree it did affect the game, but I am coming from the broadest of senses of using excuses in general. As a fan base, we tend to do that a lot. Shoot, I even did it for our 110th best defense all season (they’re a red zone D!! They step up when they need too!!! They bend but don’t break!!!)…hindsight, our D just ain’t that good and ISU had 13 days to dial into that and figure it out.
It’s not an excuse, but to say it didn’t affect the game is ridiculous.
Definitely agree it did affect the game.
Let’s be honest, this award has become a popularity contest and nothing will change this year. Does Griffin deserve the Heisman? I think he’s one of the few that would be a respectable choice. Weeden? Same as Griffin. But, if you are going to compare stats, you must compare ALL stats. When you start doing that you end up talking yourself in circles and end up in the same place…without a clear answer. For example, yes Weeden has more passing yards than Griffin, but OK State’s offense is more pass heavy. (OSU ranks 3rd in the country in attempts vs. Baylor’s ranking of 61) Weeden averages 11 more attempts/game than Griffin but only averages 16 more YPG. Weeden has 1 more TD pass than Griffin but 7 more INTs (and OSU has played 11 games vs. Baylor’s 10).
This is not an argument for Griffin as much as it is an argument that stats can be twisted any which way to make one’s point. If stats aren’t strong enough to support one’s claims then the next obvious point to argue on is # of wins…to which the naturally moves to the argument of who has the strongest supporting cast.
In my opinion, you can’t make a clear argument for Griffin over Weeden or Weeden over Griffin. I’m a Baylor and Griffin fan so I hope Griffin wins but if Weeden wins I won’t say he didn’t deserve it over Griffin.
As long as Kellen Moore or Case Keenum doesn’t win, I’ll be moderately content.
Phenomenal comment.
I would agree that when you add in Griffin’s rushing numbers that both he and Weed are similar statistically (though Weeden has been better in conference play) and you’re right, you have to go to Ws (as well as head-to-head). I would think the argument would end there…but apparently it isn’t.
I think a lot of people start at stats and go to “Heisman moments” as well, so I would throw that in with wins as something people go to. A lot of that has to do with when games were in prime time and how each performed.
It all adds up to a pretty complex formula…
Wins are very important but almost too simple when considering an award like the Heisman (or any other national award short of the Ray Guy Award). Looking at it this way is why the Heisman has so much critisism. It is also the reason why Trent Richardson is still above Montee Ball in most predictions.
I think level of competition should definately be taken into consideration (as made evident by my belief that Case Keenum should be nowhere near NYC on Dec. 10)…especially if looking at total # of wins (i.e. Houston/Boise). But, and this is a serious quesion, if level of competition is taken into considertion, shouldn’t the talent level of the contender’s team also be considered? Obviously RGIII and Weeden have equal level of competition so that is mute in this argument.
I (and I’m sure you as well) can’t honestly blame Weeden on the loss to ISU and you sure as hell can’t blame RGIII for Baylor’s three losses this season (He broke a school record for passing yards vs. TAMU. RGIII had no control over TAMU’s Swope catching 5 TDs against them and Weeden couldn’t do anything about ISU slashing through OSU’s normally clutch defense in OT.
[Now, if RGIII would have lost to Kansas I would have been the first to blame him but just as my friends and I were dog cussing Griffin and begging him to just flat out take over and beat this crappy team, he did just that in the 4Q.]
It really is an incredibly complex formula and to make things more complex, it changes every year. I have no doubt that if Baylor vs. TCU and/or Baylor vs. OU would have been on FSSW, we would not be having this discussion.
Haha FSSW, nice.
I also think there are two arguments – one is based around what we think the criteria should be and the other is based around what we think voters think the criteria actually are.
In the former, I think Weeden should be at least even with (if not ahead of) Griffin. In the latter, he’s getting drilled.
Very True.
I’ll be honest, I just don’t like Griffin on a personal level. I’d like to have some stats to back that, I just don’t like him. I think it was poor character some of the comments he made after the BU/OSU game and his overall demeanor.
Does being someone I don’t like make them unworthy of the Heisman….I don’t know. It’s just a gut feeling I have about that guy (and will probably be proved wrong as he starts a very successful NFL career).
Makes sense.
I think people just like saying the moniker “RGIII”. It sounds cool. That’s probably what’s gotten him the farthest in the media. The rest of ‘em just don’t have cool names (or nicknames…or initials).
The key difference I see and what really determines the best player is what they do when it matters. From what I can tell is the Baylors 3 losses weren’t really RG3s fault they just weren’t as good as the teams they were playing but OSUs 1 loss is directly related to Weeden. He had a bad game and had 3 costly errors. I’m not saying he isn’t good or doesn’t have the best stats but to me the heisman is the guy that puts the team on his back and gets the win when it matters most. It also hurts that Weeden isn’t the best player on OSU.
I just have to say this: There’s no way the plane crash didn’t affect the team, and not just for the reasons everyone gave. While it’s true that several players may have been close to the ones who died, no one has mentioned the psychological effect of the feeling of mortality that comes with a tragedy so close to home.
Most normal human beings, including myself, would be very uncomfortable getting on an airplane the morning after your colleagues were killed in an airplane. And they would also MOST DEFINITELY be thinking about the plane ride home.
While it might be presumptuous to claim anyone on the team is superstituous, the fact is that in a subtle way, sports lends itself to superstition. Is it possible that NO ONE on the team was thinking about the fact that this has happened to OSU twice now? I don’t think it is. Fact is, I would have been seriously rattled that night, and so I can guarantee you at least some on the football team were.
I was thinking the EXACT same thing! What do you think Gundy’s pregame speech was? “This is just a game, it’s not life and death, we all need to remember that.” It was probably something to that effect which is great on his part, and true, but I think that does play a little into the psychology of the players.
They came out flat but their subconscious was probably not in “oh crap mode” because “hey, this is just a game and there is more to life than football.” Not a single player or coach would ever say they were consciously thinking that, but the subconscious is a weird and powerful thing.
PS I majored in Business not Psych, but those are my feelings on it all after years of reading books and experience.
Jon, I actually have a degree in Psych (but it’s about 40 years old–lol) and I agree with you 100%. I actually had a friend tell me something to the effect that “OK, so maybe it bothered them somewhat in the first half, but come on, by the second half, they should’ve been over it.” Seriously? It took me about three days to get back to normal and I’m still not quite there.
Our team was not present MENTALLY. It’s like the days when you’re driving home from work and you have so many things on your mind that by the time you get home, you don’t even remember the drive. They were on “automatic” and that’s not a good way to be playing a critical game, against ANYONE.
And I was just going to say something about Gundy’s pre-game speech. Not exactly enthusiastic — but what else can you say? Anyone who says that’s our “excuse” just doesn’t get it. It’s not an EXCUSE. They played crappy, but we all know the real reason why.
Good point on pregame speech. I could only envision something along the lines of Gundy channeling General Patton and a go to war speech…….not sure if that would be appropriate or not though.
That reasons being:
1) they didn’t expect much of a fight from a team that lost to UT, BU, MU, and A&M by an average of 24 points and 2) had been hearing for several weeks that all they had to do to play for it all was to beat OU in Bedlam.
I believe you’re confusing us with the Sooners. We’re not arrogant enough (yet) to think any game is a given.
Bottom line is this….I don’t care who wins the freaking Heisman. Both in my opinion deserve a shot at it. I just want OSU to focus on bedlam just like Iowa State spent two weeks focusing on OSU and win. National Championship? Sure I want that. If not? Well as long as Oregon doesn’t lose anymore the Fiesta has at largeteams this year in its rotation so they can pick Stanford. And since I think either way Luck is gonna win it(insert throw up noise here) would it not be nice to watch Weeden carve up the Cardinal while Luck gets pick sixed twice?
Here is also a reason people can argue that OSU can’t say the tragedy had something to do with it…OU lost Box and they came out slicing and dicing. And of Arky comes out and beats LSU after losing their TE then they will use that too. Granted to us its not the same bit to the outsiders who do not know how close knit a family OSU IS, its no different.
At the end of the day, we pray for rain….and hope that the football Gods smile upon us and give us a shot at the NC. Or to give the Heisman voters the middle finger by playing whoever wins it and burying them. Lets route Harris starts at safety for OU next week and that Jazz Reynolds is still questionable. Or that everyone is healthy and that not a soul can have an excuse when we beat OU.Either way, the boys got their ring sizes in this spring for a reason. Cuz regardless they get a big 12 title ring. This game is for NC hope, Bcs bowl, and bragging rights.
Comparing OU and Arkansas’ losses to OSU’s are apples-to-oranges. Neither tragedy was IMMEDIATELY followed by a game. Heck, Box’s death was in the off season. Sorry doesn’t apply.
Patty,
Their performance in the ISU game would indicate otherwise. I think a more accurate characterization would be that the Pokes (as a program) don’t yet know how to win consistently with a target on their back.
That may well be true (re: don’t know how to win consistently with a target on their back). The pressure has been increasing tremendously. Perhaps we ascended too swiftly and got the bends when at the start of the season all we were hoping for was a Big 12 Championship. However, there’s nothing that can be said that will convince me that the tragedy had nothing to do with our loss. And I probably will never convince anyone else if they’re inclined to think otherwise.
The Heisman discussion — I have a question. The trophy goes to the most “outstanding” player. How is that different from the “best” player, as in, say the Walter Camp award?
Just different voters. Heisman voters are media and former winners, Camp award voters are Coaches and SIDs.
And by the way, I agree with Patty. They didn’t overlook anybody. They just were not there. When they showed them come out the tunnel at the beginning of the game, even the big stick holder looked like he didn’t know where he was or he didn’t wanna be there. OSU has never looked past anyone. They know what is at stake and have too much pride and determination to let arrogance get in the way and complacency happen. Hence the demeanor of weeden at the end of the game.
All I am saying is that doesn’t matter when the loss of someone close to the team is. Its worse with OSU since its right before the game. I was making a point that anyone else’s losses of loved ones do not apply even though the national pundets might feel inclined to think so. I bet that if the tragedy never happened they wouldn’t have lost. I don’t care how amped up Iowa state was. But to anyone, I guess we shoulda beat em even if it was someone on the team who died. Cuz at OSU, those who passed felt like they were on the team. That’s how close everyone is. And for Kyle, I think that they would have lost the Texas game too if we had Griffin. So I say 8-3. Both deserve a shot at the Heisman to me though. But since they for the best player from the best team and lsu doesn’t have any….I go luck(blah!) Richardson, weeden and I let keenum go just cuz he owns NCAA records and his team is undefeated and in the top 10. Griffin can come cuz he is denard Robinson SR. See how I said sr. Cuz he came first.
I’m convinced if we had played that game on any other weekend, it would have been a completely different story, but that can be said about a lot of games. Like Gundy said, it’s March Madness every weekend…you don’t get do-overs (hear that, LSU & ‘Bama?). Common reactions to tragedy include shock, disbelief, numbness, inability to concentrate or focus, and lack of motivation. Hmmm….sound familiar to anyone? And yet some think that night we weren’t thinking about the plane crash, but we WERE thinking about a game two weeks away? I just don’t think so.
And..I think if you lined up all the Heisman contenders and had a little throwing contest similar to those half-time promotions you sometimes see on TV, Weeden would win EVERY single time. Yes, I’m very biased, but that’s my opinion.
If you include the INT numbers the argument gets a little more even. Don’t get me wrong, I take Weeden any day over RG3, but it feels like you re trying to manipulate the argument when you leave out an important stat that does not favor BW.
Several of Weedens INTs have come off of deflections off of receiver’s hands… he just throws so hard. I wonder how many he (and Griffin) would have if you took out INTs like that, that weren’t really the QBs fault. In other words, how many were really on bad decisions or bad throws? Also, on the INTs, you have to take into account attempts. If Griffin had thrown as many passes as Weeden how many more INTs would he have?
Also, it would be idiotic to say that the crash didn’t have an effect on those boys during the ISU game. I was in a stupor that day, and anyone who is halfway close to the OSU program that says they weren’t is lying to themselves… and the team didn’t find out until breakfast the day of the game. That’s less than 12hrs before kickoff!