Baylor Preview

Kyle Porter —  October 29, 2011 — 12 Comments

Photo Attribution: Icon SMI

Teams: #3 Oklahoma State 7-0 (4-0) vs. Baylor 4-2 (1-2)
Time: 2:30 AM CST
TV: ABC/ESPN2 – Coverage map
On the call: Bob Wischusen, Bob Davie and Jeannine Edwards

Kickoff: Two of the six highest scoring offenses in the country meet up at Boone’s house on Saturday. The problem for Baylor is that one of those teams also has a legitimate defense. Football Outsiders actually says Baylor’s offense is more prolific on a play-by-play basis (that stat is explained in further detail here).

OSU is looking to protect the highest BCS ranking in school history and is (I cannot believe my fingers are punching these keys) two games from moving into the #2 slot in the country.

For entertainment purposes:
Spread: Cowboys -14.5
Over/Under: 79.5

This line opened at OSU -18 which means people are piling cash on RG3 and the Bears. I think that’s fair, 18 seemed a bit extravagant. The real money to be made is on the over/under though. You guys know me, I’m all about taking the over, but I think Vegas is preying on people’s perception of OSU’s defense. Will OSU score 50+? Probably, but that means they’d have to give up 30+, which is a number they haven’t hit yet in conference play. Go under.

A few stats you should know:

    1. OSU has never played a home game while 7-0.
    1. Justin Gilbert got his first kick return against Baylor which means he has 4 in the last 12 games.
    1. Great find by Gavin Lang here: Nigel Nicholas has 8.0 tackles for loss this season. No OSU tackle had more than 4.0 TFLs all of last season.
    1. OSU is 2nd in the country in points scored but 95th in time of possession. I think that’s called being efficient.

What I’m excited about: It’s homecoming, I’m not sure I need much more to be excited about. Wouldn’t it be funny though, if this “porous” defense shut down everyone’s favorite darkhorse for the Heisman and stuck Baylor with another 30+ point loss? Wouldn’t it be funny if it was the defense that shone brightest this afternoon while the offense lay seething, ready to down K-State, Tech, and Iowa State en route to Bedlam…

OSU will win if: They get a turnover. Like, one. That hasn’t been an issue this year as they’ve forced 2 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 in their first seven games. #OccupyTheBackfield

How worried I am (out of 10):

Uniform prediction:

Gun to my head: OSU 49-27 – I think it plays out a lot like the A&M Baylor game. There’s so much pressure on RG3 to put it in the endzone every single time he touches it because of how paltry the Bears’ defense is. Baylor reminds me of OSU in ’08 or ’09: world-class offense that puts up 45 points and loses by 25.

Give me your predictions below!

  • Shem Oliver

    59-31 OSU, RG3 gets roughed up early and OSU rolls

  • CowboyKS

    Say Blatnick, Jones, Lewis 3 times real fast… That is the check-off list every time RGIII preps for a snap.

    Showdown of the game is Lockdown Brown vs. “Spidy Gloves” Wright. Lockdown hasn’t had an issue shutting down top receiving talent so far this year. No reason to be concerned today.

    Baylor scores 3 TD’s, OState scores 7. Icing is Sharp up for the Groza. Sucks being a Bear today.

  • Tyler

    54-21 OSU, Black helmet, orange top, black pants

  • http://www.myfavoritecowboys.com Robert Whetsell

    62-28, OSU’s D is the MVP. 7 pts on the board for Baylor when the starters come out…

    OSU wins if…Baylor’s D doesn’t pull a “Trading Places” with
    OSU’s D…not likely

    What am I excited about? OSU coming out and showing why they are a legit #3 in BCS.

    Stats…Baylor gave up 55 to A&M on the road. Anyone think OSU’s offense is as good as A&M’s? Baylor gave up 36 to KState on the road…not even going to ask the question…

    How worried am I? On a scale of 1-10…
    -5 (that’s a NEGATIVE)

    Uni prediction…gotta go with Kyle’s jersey selection…orange will be in play for Homecoming. GO POKES!!!

  • http://alan-foley.net afole4

    Black helmets, Orange Jersey, Black Pants. Bonus prediction: Kyle’s tweets about Gilbert ~3

  • hnolan3

    OSU 56-27. Gun to my head OSU 42-31. Orange tops. Orange pants. Reveal of the Orange helmet! Baylor will score 24 in the second half and only 7 in the first. Or three. Take your pick.

  • Thirdeyemystic

    OSU 56-31
    Uniform prediction: White-Orange-Orange

    Most interested in how the receivers bounce back after two bad games if drops. If they are on, Weeden may set completion records…again. I am not discounting RG3 ability to may plays, I think they will get some big ones. But if today may be the day when all phases of the game are rolling, firing on all cylinders. I wouldn’t be surprised if the score was 63-28.

    Go Pokes!

  • UrbanCowboy

    52-17 Cowboys. Defense keeps Baylor out of the endzone for the 1st half.

    • UrbanCowboy

      I nailed my Defense prediction for the 1st half…although I thought we would hold them to field goals. Added bonus that we actually shut them out for the half when every expert all week was saying…”baylor will score their points, Robert Griffin is just too good to stop” blah blah blah. I hope the haters keep hating.

  • Hodgie1313

    55-28 I hope Weeden out rushes RG3 again.

  • G-Block

    On other sites, I had picked OSU to win 62 – 27. At half-time, it appears that I may have been too high on Baylor’s offense and not give our D enough credit.

  • PistolsMom

    I love the OTB reference ! Do you by chance listen to talk radio ? hmmmm ..you are a “rush baby”

    Good stuff on this blog !