The Big 12 Did Not Expand, But It Got What It Wanted (More Money)

The end game in this Big 12 expansion charade all along has been what the end game almost always is: More money. Once the Big 12 started down the path of potential expansion, it was going to get paid either way. Either it was going to get $500 million – $1 billion by adding teams or it was going to see what the TV networks would give the Big 12 to not add them.

Joel Klatt mentioned this a few weeks ago in an interview with the Oklahoman.

“So far, I think they have gone back and looked at that after the television partners told them that we would not like them to expand,” said Klatt. “I think the television partners are even willing to pay a little more to keep them at 10. … I don’t think they are going to expand because I don’t think it behooves the television partners, which is the lifeline of any conference.”

So now that the Big 12 has decided to not expand, the question becomes how will ESPN and FOX pay them more? Dennis Dodd of CBS Sports laid that out on Monday, and it makes a lot of sense.

It would be wrapped inside the negotiation for the price of the reinstated championship game that begins in 2017. That game was once said to be worth $3 million annually to Big 12 schools. Don’t be surprised if it ends up being worth, say, $5 million.

Ahh the reverse quid pro quo. You don’t do something (expand) and we’ll give you something in return (more money for your title game).

Expansion doesn’t even have to enter the conversation. It’s a negotiation. In reality, it’s $50 million per year ESPN and Fox are paying instead of the $800 million to a $1 billion. That’s what they would have been on the hook for if the Big 12 expanded by four. Overpaying for the championship game actually becomes a net “savings” of $750 million to $950 million.

It actually makes a ton of sense for it to play out like this.

In that scenario, ESPN and Fox come out less pissed had the Big 12 exercised the Big Pro Rata.

Perfect. Maybe the Big 12 brass is a bunch of geniuses after all. They didn’t stupidly add Rice and Houston and bumped the payout for each team by (potentially) $5 million? That sounds pretty good to me. Your entire conference only gets $6 million if one of its teams makes it to the CFB Playoffs.

This was the sort of unwritten plan all along. Do I think the Big 12 was earnest about wanting to add a couple of teams? Sure. But do I think it always had in the back of its mind that ESPN and FOX would probably give them additional more money to not add teams and the idea of more money and no headache of diluting the conference with Cincinnati and Colorado State was appealing? Yes, I do.

OU president David Boren and Big 12 commissioner Bob Bowlsby were asked about the ESPN/FOX money on Monday.

“I’m not going to get into a whole lot of specifics on our negotiations,” said Bowlsby. “We have a new piece of inventory with our championship game, so we’re in the process of discussions with both FOX and ESPN on that.”

Translation: Dodd was right!

“There are components of the contract that we also talk about in the context of those changes, and we’re going to continue to talk about those. But I think when those things are completed, we’ll go about the process of announcing them. Until then, I’m not prepared to talk about the specifics of any of them. In fact, they’re works in progress. Anything I would say would be highly preliminary.”

“I would endorse what the commissioner just said,” added Boren.

So the Big 12 might have lost out on teams on Monday but it padded itself where it matters most showing that though the future of the conference is not sparkling, there’s still hope for some sort of future.