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Big Dance Preview: Q&A with the Michigan Wolverines

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Oklahoma State plays Michigan on Friday in Indinapolis, and we need to take a look at the other side of things. So we went to Brian Cook over at MGoBlog, a classy outfit covering all things Wolverine (UM not X-Men of course).

He told me Michigan had a midseason defensive renaissance also and “this team has a distinct Pittsnogle feel” is probably the most insightful thing I’ve heard about Michigan, but there are a lot of gems in here.

Context on Pittsnogle, take note of his former coach at WVU (as he’ll be coaching against the Pokes in round one):

1. The Pokes and Wolverines appear to be two peas in a pod: offensive savants with defensive shortcomings. For Oklahoma State, it’s a bit of a systemic issue with smaller guards that shoot and a missing rim-protector. Can you tell us about the makeup of the Michigan lineup with it’s strengths and weaknesses?

Michigan’s biggest strength is their diversity on offense. Production can come from anywhere; the 4 and 5 collectively shoot almost 40 percent from 3. Derrick Walton’s been one of the best guards in the Big Ten, and maybe country, over the past couple months. Nobody cracks the 24 percent usage that qualifies you as a “major contributor” on Kenpom, let alone the 28 percent required for “go-to guy.”

Walton has become a Chauncey-Billups-esque shooter who will rise up in your face and stick threes, especially when he gets a big switched on him. Two-guard Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman can hit open threes but is mostly a driver who can make tough shots at the rim.

SF Zak Irvin is a good-at-bad-shots guy who is Michigan’s least efficient player; he’s turned into a very good defender and will try to contain Jeff Carroll. The 4, DJ Wilson, is super long, very skilled, somewhat slight, and not a great rebounder. 5 Mo Wagner is Nowitzki-esque but inconsistent.

Michigan’s weak spots are post defense, especially when backup center Mark Donnal is in the game, and rebounding on both ends. Michigan virtually abandons the offensive glass so they can get back in transition. That’s not a huge problem since Michigan’s turnover rate is so low; they get their share of shots. Defensive rebounding *is* a huge problem and it’s my main concern against the Cowboys since they crash the glass better than almost anyone in the country.

2. After the airplane scare, what did you see different about the Wolverines as they went on that four-game tear through the Big Ten conference tournament?

Nothing. Seriously. Michigan has been one of the hottest teams in the country since Illinois center Maverick Morgan called Michigan a “white collar” team in the aftermath of an ugly road loss in which their defense hit their nadir. This might not be obvious from the stats, but Michigan had a midseason renaissance on defense. They had one more bad game against Nebraska, whereupon their defense hit a nadir, ranked No. 184 on Kenpom.

Since then they’ve turned it around to an almost unbelievable level. Michigan is top ten at preventing threes from being attempted, forces more two-point jumpers than anyone in the country, and has… survived in the post. An uptick from Walton and Wagner’s emergence gave the offense another increment of efficiency, but it is the defense that’s taken Michigan from the wrong side of the bubble in January to a seven seed. They’re all the way up to 69th.

3.Derrick Walton, Jr. is a super talented guard that appears to be the burning hot center of the offense. What is it about him and Michigan’s offense that teams have such a hard time with?

Walton had an explosion at almost the same time the defense turned around; he went from a guy who was making barely more than a third of his shots inside the arc to a reasonably effective interior player, and that’s made all the difference. Shortly after the Maverick Incident he decided this was his team, so most of Michigan’s action will run through him with high pick-and-roll and pick-and-pop action.

Having five guys who can shoot from three has discombobulated opposing defenses something fierce. Minnesota has the No. 1 shotblocker in the country; in the BTT he had zero. Purdue has a 7’2″ guy who looks like Ivan Drago who had 17 points in 15 minutes in the BTT, and he couldn’t play more minutes than that because he was a free bucket on the perimeter for DJ Wilson. There is a distinct Pittsnogle feel to the offense, which is new: Michigan has not had a center who shot a lot of threes since Beilein arrived a decade ago.

 4. What (OSU-Michigan) match ups are you most looking forward to watching on Friday? I hope you don’t mind me referring to us as OSU, since we’re the only ones with those initials that made the tournament 🙂

Similarly I hope you don’t mind that we’re referring to you as “Okie State” on the blog, because no Michigan fan can interpret “OSU” as anything but the Great Satan.

The matchups I’m looking at aren’t necessarily individual battles but more stylistic ones. Michigan is a very good transition team that doesn’t run very much but takes the opportunities that are there. Missed Oklahoma State shots are going to be very high leverage: Michigan is going to give up a number of offensive rebounds but with the Cowboys often sending three guys to the glass there will be opportunities for Michigan to run.

I think Michigan wins if they can keep Oklahoma State out of transition, which they’re good at, and takes as many shots. That latter is a tall order. Should be an exciting game.

Steven back for a final salute before Friday. Here’s to hoping OSU is able to sneak in some transition buckets like this.

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