Here’s How Oklahoma State Can Still Make the Playoff

I know ESPN already called the playoffs for OSU, but that dream has a pulse (kind of).

If we can presume that OU is playing for the Big 12 title and College Football Playoff this weekend (and I think everyone is), why can we not presume the same about OSU. That seems sort of odd in a conference where those two teams have the same record and every team plays each other, doesn’t it? Or do we just value playing Tennessee in the non-conference portion that much?

Title Odds:
Alabama +150
Clemson 4/1
Oklahoma 7/1
N. Dame 8/1
Baylor 10/1
Mich St 14/1
Iowa, Ohio St 20/1
Ok St, Florida 25/1
Michigan 30/1

— RJ Bell (@RJinVegas) November 23, 2015

It seems even more odd when you consider which teams OSU and OU lost to. The Cowboys fell at the hands of the best offense in the country. The Sooners fell to an offense that may or may not be the best on Texas’ campus in Austin (depending on a few of its A-league flag football offenses).

It’s because the “when you lost doesn’t matter, please trust us!” argument is really stupid and because the College Football Playoff is a brand competition as much as it is one on the field. And it’s unfortunate that we let the committee sort of re-write how it thinks the season should have gone, but that’s what they said they were going to do all along.

As for what it would take for OSU to slip through that back door into a NYE game with the top four? Not as much as you might think. 538 gives OSU a 9 percent chance of sneaking in. Here’s how I see it happening.

You have to beat OU and have TCU or Texas beat Baylor. That’s the baseline. The only Big 12 team even potentially getting into the playoffs is the Big 12 champ, whoever that is. So the most likely thing is a TCU win on Friday and an OSU win on Saturday and neither is likely.

Then you need the following wins.

Florida State or Alabama over Florida
Stanford over Notre Dame
Michigan State or Nebraska over Iowa
Clemson or NC State over North Carolina

And actually that might be it. It would technically be better if Iowa won out but I’m trying to be realistic here.

The teams in at that point would be Clemson, Alabama and Michigan State. You might need Michigan to beat Ohio State and Nebraska AND MSU to beat Iowa, though I wouldn’t mind seeing a non-Big 10 winning Iowa team getting in just to experience that podcast with Carson. To me, it would be pretty tough to justify putting 11-1 Ohio State (especially with how it looked against Michgan State) or 12-1 Iowa in over the Big 12 champ (though the committee would probably try to find a way). And if Stanford still sneaks in then I’m quitting this sport forever.[1. Until next August.]

But yeah, those wins happening aren’t a huge stretch.

Stanford is a favorite over Notre Dame. Bama, MSU and Clemson will be favorites in the games OSU needs them to win. The tough one might be TCU or Texas over Baylor. Actually the tough one is going to be OSU over OU on Saturday night.

But the playoff door isn’t completely shut.