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Hoops Preview: Michigan Wolverines in the NCAA Tournament

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Led by a scorching offense, the (24-11, 10-8) Michigan Wolverines have won 10 of their last 12 games. The highest seed (No. 8) to ever win the Big Ten tournament, Cinderella almost didn’t make it to the ball after a near-disaster plane departure.

But when they did arrive, the Wolverines took care of business in the nation’s capital winning four in a row by an average of 11.5 points. But there were some encouraging signs for opponents and some vulnerabilities for the Cowboys to exploit as they prep for their first tournament game under Coach Brad Underwood.

Michigan shoots more threes than the Iowa Hawkeyes football team kicks field goals. Slow that down (or heck, get them away from Washington D.C.) and you’ll have a chance to stall them out. Their bigs like to shoot from twenty feet which is less threatening than a Wisconsin-esque pound it out attack.

However, head coach John Belien has been there for 10 years and has an experienced squad that will be a tremendous first round challenge.

Viewing Info

Time: 11:15 a.m.
TV: CBS
Location: BankersLife Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, Indiana
Line: Michigan -2.5

Season Trend

Nice wins over some tourney teams: No. 4-seed Purdue (x2), No. 5-seed Minnesota, No. 6-seed SMU, No. 8-seed Wisconsin, No. 9-seed Michigan State and No. 10-seed Marquette. On the other end of impressive are conference losses to Ohio State, Illinois and Iowa.

While stellar offensive play is the Wolverine calling card, stellar defensive play locked up their first Big Ten tournament title since a vacated 1998 title. A one-point game at the half, the Wisconsin offense led by 6’10”, 230 pound player of the year candidate Ethan Happ was shut down.

The Wolverines held Wisconsin scoreless for the first eight minutes of the second half and forcing four turnovers. Michigan didn’t much toy with the Badgers: nailing a couple of threes when Wisconsin pulled within six with nearly four minutes to go. Wisconsin shot 39.3 percent on the day while Michigan had the hot hand knocking down 56.3 percent from the field.

Holding Wisconsin to only six of 24 shots in the second half was impressive stuff. For a team that’s not known for solid defense, it’s a trend to keep an eye on.

Three Things to Watch
1. Offensive Comparisons

You’ve probably heard the early narrative about the similarities: stellar offenses and middling defenses.

One Michigan site put it like this: “Envision an offense that’s slightly more efficient offense than Michigan’s that plays at a faster pace and crashes the offensive glass. That’s Oklahoma State.”

We can expect a slower, less turnover-prone version of the Cowboys. Sort of like Iowa State but with size that doesn’t rebound.

But more central is the three ball: the Wolverines pull the trigger from deep more often (shooting 45.1 percent of shots from three as opposed to 36 percent for the Cowboys) but with slightly less efficiency (38.4 percent for Big Blue and 40.1 percent for the Pokes).

Michigan relies on their bigs to knock down some shots too.

He’s referring to the way Texas Tech’s bigs are used to space the floor and open up lanes for guards that don’t have elite playmaking skills. But Michigan’s lead guard does ….

2. Point Guard Paradise

Stop me if you’ve heard this: the Pokes will face a super talented point guard.

Evans and Wolverine senior guard Derrick Walton, Jr. are both masters of the high ball screen, handles that get you deep into the lane and a great-not-Forte three point shot that you can’t leave alone.

Evans hasn’t earned his chops as a defensive savant, so expect Walton, Jr. to have himself an All Big Ten level game. Walton, Jr. is the third most efficient offensive player in the Big Ten (per KenPom) but he’ll be guarding someone who’s putting up numbers most similar to 2015 Cam Payne, 2003 T.J. Ford and 2005 Chris Paul.

Yahoo ranked Jawun as the No. 12 best player in the Big Dance, while Walton is placed at no. 36, but both players are the head of the snake for some of the best offenses in college basketball.

3. A Less Than Ideal Comparison

Something we may not want to hear.

(T)he success of the Iowa State model is most relevant here. The Cyclones beat Oklahoma State three times this season and match Michigan’s statistical profile almost to a tee: they have a perimeter-oriented pick-and-roll heavy offense led by a senior point guard, they don’t turn the ball over and they are the worst rebounding team in the Big 12. [UM Hoops]

While Underwood may have compared them to Tech in some respects, the offensive style is definitely very Iowa Statey. They don’t get to the free throw line a ton but they shoot so well and are so efficient with the ball that it doesn’t really matter. The Wolverines only turn the ball over 9.4 times each game, best in the Big Ten.

But there’s a massive caveat here: Michigan finished eighth in the Big Ten. Running through the conference tournament like a hot knife through butter is impressive, but at the end of the day an objective third party ranked those teams as four (Purdue), five (Minnesota) and eight (Wisconsin) seeds and a two seed in the NIT (Illinois). Again, not to downplay that feat, but doing that to the fourth-best basketball conference is notable.

Statistical Comparison

Other Notes
  • OSU’s 28 NCAA Tournament appearances rank 24th among all schools nationwide, and the program’s .594 win percentage (38-26) ranks 22nd among all schools with at least 50 games played in the tournament.
  • This will be the fourth overall meeting between Oklahoma State and Michigan, and the first since the second round of the 1997 NIT in Ann Arbor, Mich. The Wolverines own a slight 2-1 edge in the series. The two programs also met in the 1992 Sweet 16 in Lexington, Ky., and in a non-conference tournament in Toledo, Ohio in 1982.
  • The Wolverines offense is so efficient because they rarely turn the ball over. Michigan turns the ball over just 9.4 times per game, which are the fewest turnovers in Division I basketball.
  • Michigan is led by head coach John Beilein, who is in his 10th season in Ann Arbor. Beilein and the Wolverines are appearing in the NCAA Tournament for the sixth time in the last seven seasons, including a trip to the NCAA Tournament title game in 2012-13.
  • Jawun Evans posted 22 points and a career-high 15 assists against Kansas on March 4, which is the only 20/15 game in the country this season, and only the fourth in Big 12 history.
  • This will be OSU’s first appearance on CBS this season, but the Cowboys are 30-22 all-time on the network.

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