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Oklahoma State, Big 12 Playoff Hopes Took a Huge Hit On Saturday

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The Big 12 champion, whoever that may be one week from today, needed the following things to happen on Friday and Saturday to have a nice shot at the CFB Playoff.

  • Ohio State and Michigan State win OR Michigan win
  • Colorado loss
  • Clemson loss
  • Washington loss

None of them happened. That’s bad news for a conference that looks like it will get shut out for the second time in three years.

Here are your conference title games next week:

  • SEC: Alabama (12-0) vs. Florida (8-4)
  • ACC: Clemson (11-1) vs. Virginia Tech (9-3)
  • Big 10: Wisconsin (10-2) vs. Penn State (10-2)
  • Big 12: Oklahoma State (9-2) vs. Oklahoma (9-2)
  • Pac-12: Washington (11-1) vs. Colorado (10-2)

Here is how I would rank teams’ odds of getting CFB Playoff spots with only the conference championship games left.

  1. Alabama
  2. Ohio State
  3. Clemson
  4. Washington
  5. Big 10 winner (Wisconsin or Penn State)
  6. OU
  7. Colorado
  8. Oklahoma State
  9. Michigan

Alabama can lose by 60 to Florida and it is in. Ohio State is in (winning your conference and division doesn’t matter anymore). Clemson is in if it beats Virginia Tech. Washington is in if it beats Colorado. That is the cleanest break for the CFB Playoff committee although Penn State beating Ohio State and potentially winning the Big 10 title but not getting in is amazing to me. Again, why have conferences?

It gets messy if Clemson or Washington loses.

Let’s look at Clemson first. If Clemson loses to Virginia Tech and Washington beats Colorado, neither Clemson nor Virginia Tech will get in the CFB Playoff from the ACC. Who’s up? It will probably be the Big 10 title winner. Although it could be Oklahoma (probably not Oklahoma State because … brands). So your playoff would be Alabama, Ohio State, Washington and Penn State or Wisconsin (or maybe Oklahoma).

What if Clemson wins but Washington loses? Probably the same thing although Colorado would be the Pac-12 champion at 11-2 which would make it interesting between them and Penn State or Wisconsin at 11-2 (as well as a 10-2 OU). I still don’t think a Big 12 winner would get in although those blind resumes would be fascinating. Remember, Wisconsin, Penn State and Colorado were all ahead of Oklahoma State in the CFB Playoff rankings this week. And Wisconsin and Penn State were also ahead of OU.

But what if Colorado beats Washington and Virginia Tech beats Clemson. Whoo boy, we got ourselves a situation.

If that happened, Alabama would be in. Ohio State would be in. I think the Big 10 winner would be in. And the committee would have to choose between 11-2 Colorado, 10-2 Washington, 10-2 Oklahoma/Oklahoma State and 10-2 Michigan. I am here for that. That’s a fighting chance for the Big 12 although I think Colorado and the Big 10 winner might squeeze in over 10-2 OSU which would be painful.

Also. can you imagine if it went with Alabama, Ohio State, Penn State and Michigan??? The Big 10 playoffs! Here is the best I can do for the Big 12 on 538.

screen-shot-2016-11-26-at-11-14-17-pm

Not great. Oklahoma State needs Colorado to beat Washington on a terrible call. It needs Virginia Tech to mash Clemson. And it needs to beat OU rather convincingly to have a chance. I also think Penn State barely winning the Big 10 title gives OSU (but more so OU) a hail mary (pun intended). The reality, though, is that the Big 12 is probably buried.

However, the Pac-12 title is on Friday night so get your Rashaan Salaam jerseys on and lets throw it back for one of our old Big 8 brethren!

 

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