Oklahoma State Projected No. 22 in Advanced Statistical Rankings

SB Nation football writer Bill Connelly is a smart man. He’s so smart that a few years back he created his own ranking system for determining the effectiveness of a football team called S&P+.

A very shallow description would be to say that S&P+ combines the effectiveness of an offense with the explosiveness of an offense. You can read better and more in-depth description here.

So how do the S&P+ rankings view Oklahoma State?

First, let’s take a look at last year. The Cowboys were No. 22 nationally in the final S&P+ rankings for 2016. You can check out a complete breakdown of the Cowboys’ 2016 stats on Football Study Hall.

What about this fall? There are very few among the fan base that expect Oklahoma State to do anything but improve in 2017. Mason Rudolph is back for one more shot at a Big 12 title and he’ll have plenty of help from the likes of Justice Hill, James Washington and a list of three-deep receivers that would make most Big 12 coaches blush.

In Connelly’s Oklahoma State preview (you should go read that) he does a great job of breaking down the Cowboys strengths and weakness from an unbiased viewpoint.

Biggest strength: The passing game might be the best in the country. Mason Rudolph plus James Washington, Marcell Ateman, and company is terrifying.

Biggest question mark: OSU has been mediocre on defense for three years and must replace a mediocre secondary. Can new weapons help OSU avoid shootout after shootout?

Of course, a lot of this season’s success will depend on Oklahoma State’s ability to get stops and force turnovers. Mike Gundy doesn’t seem too worried about it. The biggest question in the secondary will be answered early on as the Cowboys open the season against Philip Montgomery’s retooling Tulsa offense.

Connelly projects the Cowboys as an 8-win team and No. 22 in the S&P+ rankings again. That lands them as a tier-2 Big 12 team. Tier 1 is Oklahoma and that’s it. The Cowboys head the second tier ahead of Texas, Kansas State and TCU.

Here’s a look at Connelly’s Big 12 power rankings. Note: the power ranking is just that. It does not take schedule into account and is not his projection, as he explained. That’s why some of the S&P+ rankings and power rankings don’t jive.

S&P+ rankings, like any stats, are just piece of the puzzle but they allow us a great way to look at a team’s strengths or weaknesses. Eight wins seems a little low for me. Vegas has the betting line set at nine regular season wins for the Cowboys.

The unknown is part of what we love about sports and college football in general. Last year, Oklahoma State was an officiating snafu and a freshman fumble away from very possibly winning 12 games. In 2015, all those breaks seemed to go the Cowboys’ way. In 2016, they most definitely didn’t. Let’s hope the Cowboys are as good on defense as Gundy thinks, that the young corners can hit the ground running and that a couple of balls bounce their way come September.