Oklahoma State Projected to Have Top Five Offense In 2016

Oklahoma State’s offense in 2016 returns far more experience than any other Big 12 team. According to ESPN, OSU returns 30 more “starts” than the next closest and almost 100 more than the next closest after that. Here’s the chart they put together.

As a result of that offensive firepower returning, ESPN has also projected that OSU will have a top five offense in 2016 in terms of “expected points.” This is an interesting concept more easily explained here.

Expected points (EP) accounts for factors such as down, distance to go, field position, home-field advantage and time remaining. The value it puts out is on a scale from about minus-3 to 7, and it basically represents “which team is likely to score next, and how many points?” It represents the likely points not just on the current drive but also on the next drive or any subsequent drive until the score changes or the half ends. A lower value indicates a more favorable situation for the defense (i.e. fourth-and-20 from your own 1-yard line could be close to minus-3 EP), and a higher value represents a more favorable situation for the offense (i.e. first-and-goal is generally worth 6 EP).

Makes sense, right? And it takes into account the nuance in individual plays that total yards might not. Another step in advanced statistics.

From your own 20-yard line, an 8-yard gain on third-and-10 is worth about minus-0.2 EPA because you don’t get a first down; the same 8 yards on third-and-7 is worth 1.4 EPA for converting a long third down and keeping the drive alive. EPA knows that not all yards are created equal.

Oklahoma State fared well in ESPN’s first Football Power Index which takes into account recent performance as well as returning starters (with an emphasis on quarterbacks). The main reason? An offense that’s expected to be elite. Here are the top five offenses nationally as ESPN ranks them in terms of expected points added (this is not total points and not meant to represent total points per game … it essentially measures how good you are at putting yourself into positions to score a lot).

1. Florida State: 15.6 EP (against an average FBS defense)
2. Clemson: 14.4 EP
3. OU: 12.8 EP
4. OSU: 12.7 EP
5. LSU: 11.8 EP

Wow. That’s a list.

Baylor and Texas Tech are also in the top 10. It feels like ESPN might be giving too much credit to experience (OSU) and not enough to systems (Baylor), but I’ll take it because it’s May and anything can happen in May.

Mike Gundy noted at the end of the spring that OSU should only improve this summer. He has the right guys on the bus. “I don’t have any questions in their work ethic [for the summer],” said Gundy at the end of the spring.

“In our staff meeting, we have 102 players, give or take, on our team right now so we wanted to identify guys that we didn’t think weren’t fully committed to our organization. We had a difficult time coming up with a couple of names, but even that was iffy. So we have no questions about their commitment to maximizing their potential and being the best team possible.”