What Teams Are Traditionally The Most Overrated and Underrated In The Big 12?

This is one of my favorite posts to complete annually. The Big 12 media picks came out this week. Oklahoma State was picked to finish third in the conference which seems more than fair. You can view all of those here. What I want to know though is which Big 12 teams are traditionally underrated and overrated. I’ve looked back on the data over the past 20 years and put together a chart showing us which teams have been easiest and hardest to pinpoint in the preseason.

It should be noted that final Big 12 standings reflect what the Big 12 Conference shows me (in other words, I trust they worked out all the tiebreakers and appropriated everyone correctly). This has gotten more difficult over time as the league expanded from six-team divisions to a “10-team division” so the rankings have gotten more volatile in recent years. Let’s look at how easy schools are to nail down from easiest to hardest.

Kansas has become the easiest team in the Big 12 to pick. It’s not difficult to see why. In the last five years it has been picked to finish 10th five times. It has finished 10th four times and 9th once. Baylor was the old Kansas. Picked to finish 6th in the South every year. Finished 6th in the South every year. There is less data with WVU and TCU so obviously more volatility.

Oklahoma State has been wily. The media has missed them by two or more spots in five of the last six years. Three of those were good years (2010, 2011 and 2014) and two were not good (2013, 2014).

What about big misses (defined as whiffing by three or more spots). No surprises here.

In three of those four KSU whiffs they were picked too low with the best one being in 2012 when they were picked sixth and finished first. It would be like Texas Tech winning the conference this year.

Speaking of Tech. Here’s a look at which teams are traditionally the most underrated (picked too low) and which are the most overrated (picked too high). Sorted by underrated-ness.

To be fair here, it has traditionally been very difficult for OU and Texas to outkick their coverage, so to speak. When you’re picked first, you can’t finish higher than that. Still, I was surprised to see Tech at the top ahead of Kansas State. I would have bet all my Bill Snyder pullovers that KSU would top this list. Oklahoma State is a respectable fourth.