Three Things We Can Learn About OSU From Win Predictor Percentage

I broke this down a bit for the Iowa State game, but I think the Win Predictor for ESPN is a underutilized tool that deserves a double-take for the season so far.

We are now three quarters of the way through the football season and I would say the success of the team in the minds of most fans falls somewhere between “most terrible nightmare” and “beyond wildest dreams” which, while not ideal, is not the worst place to be.

While being fairly consistent performance-wise this Cowboys team has given us more than our fair share of ups and downs (I’m of course speaking in terms of both emotion and blood pressure).

I talked in the earlier article about how fandom tends to live in this instantaneous reality where each game or drive or down is the highest or lowest moment we could ever comprehend but in reality life is much more consistent. T

his is superbly easy to see in this Win Probability chart and so I figured I could help us navigate our way through the three final and most treacherous games by looking back and taking three main lessons from earlier in the season.

Let’s get to it and may all our cardiologists have slightly less business this year through the benefits of just a bit of perspective!

The Three Lessons

1. Mason Rudolph has become one of the most clutch quarterbacks in OSU history.
2. You can see the “chameleon offense” of OSU through these charts.
3. Oklahoma State is a real contender for the Big 12 title.

So obviously the Pokes struggled at end of game situations through the first few games, but around the Baylor/Texas games it seems like a switch flipped in Mason’s brain and he is a closing machine now.

Pay special attention to the last 25 percent of each chart and you can see the improvement that is driven by QB1. You can also see the way Oklahoma State plays offense differently in each game as far as setting up slow drives in games like Baylor and WVU.

This also gives us a decent potential gameplan for success against our last three teams. Other than Baylor which was pretty close to 50 percent through the game, OSU has been favored pretty heavily throughout the entire rest of the season. This is a good team that can play with the best of them.

VS SELA

So this was pretty standard as far as wins over non-FBS schools go. Not much to look at here overall. I have no clue about that uptick at the end but I’m pretty sure OSU was up 50 at that point so safe to ignore the anomaly.

VS CMU

This is still pretty upsetting. The bottom section with the score, time, and probability. Ugh. But as we can see before the end, there were several large spikes in favor of CMU.

Fourth quarter was obviously the first example of end-of-game difficulty for OkState and regardless of the way the game did *should* have ended they left the opportunity there for the Chips. Not the best look for OSU regardless.

VS PITT

So OSU played a fairly strong game here, though you can see there is another bit of trouble at the end of the game once again.

This is the most sporadic of all the win probabilities so far. The line is not smooth and it seems as though the win probability system may have taken a page from the fans! The jump towards the 50 percent line near the middle of the game is Mason’s fumble in the end zone which tied the game. Not yet very clutch.

The last half of the game was fairly competitively even and it took a massive heave from Rudolph to Seales to finish off this game.

@ BU

Well that’s not good. Lots of green on this line. The Pokes held up early and caused Baylor a few problems throughout the game, but for the most part, the Bears seemed to dominate this game. It felt that way while watching as well.

You can see some interesting line movement here throughout the game. You can see the Cowboys’ drives are more of a slow upward slope, then Baylor gets the ball and there are large drops down.

We know OC Mike Yurcich tried to take it B1G style to the Bears with slow grinding drives which kept the Pokes in the game for a while, but Baylor’s quick strike offense was just too powerful and took over the game by the end.

VS UT

This is one of the Cowboy’s best Win Probability lines. This is also the first game which has shown the Pokes extending their lead near the end of the game and solidly defeating an opponent.

What had been a struggle for OSU early in the season has begun to turn into an asset as we move towards the second half of the season. Up to this point they have faced tremendous pressure right to the wire and it appears the Pokes and Mason have finally found their recipe for “Clutch Mason.”

VS ISU

Yeesh. Remember that thing where we learned how to finish? Well, I suppose this is a scary yet good example of that. With 3 minutes left in the 3rd quarter Iowa St. had a 92.2 percent (!!!) chance to win. Then Clutch Mason happened.

Three touchdowns and a drive resulting in a field goal to finish the game and steal the victory for the Pokes. While I would have liked the Pokes to have made this easier on my heart, their close finishes in the earlier weeks paid off and Mason Rudolph had plenty of confidence to grab a win here.

@ KU

The worst Win Percentage the Pokes had in Lawrence was 80.3 percent. That seems fair. Has Bill Self ever considered coaching the football team?

VS WVU (Homecoming)

Pokes were favored from the start and, though they struggled at the beginning of the game a bit, OSU clearly came out and shut this game down in the second half.

Against a highly ranked West Virginia team Oklahoma State showed that they could both outplay and outlast their opponent without needing to give fans a heart attack at the finish!

@ KSU

A crazy back and forth game in the Synder’s version of Hogwarts ended in victory for the Cowboys. Honestly I don’t know how this happened and it still doesn’t feel real.

KSU got all the way up to 94.1 percent chance of winning when they punted and pinned OSU at their own 8 yard line with eight minutes left and a nine-point deficit. But again, Clutch Mason. Wow.

We’ve discussed if Mason is elite, and we have (and will probably again) talk about records he can break at OSU, but holy cow this dude can ball.

There is enough on Mason Rudolph second half comebacks for its own post but this is one guy who does not bat an eye no matter the pressure. We’ve also talked plenty about our confidence level in Mason and how he stacks up to other historic OSU quarterbacks with the ball in his hands and the game on the line.

There have been times when his short-intermediate passes have worried me, but gosh, seeing his composure there’s no one I’d rather have back in that pistol with the game on the line than No. 2.

Looking Forward

So what does all this tell us about the rest of the season? We play Tech in Stillwater, at TCU, and at Mordor Norman. Three tough games with three teams that can put up some points.

If you quickly scroll through the win percentages so far this year, OSU has improved dramatically in 4th quarter and end-of-game situations. Gundy recently said his goal for the last four games is to be close in the fourth quarter and I fully agree with that idea at this point in the season.

Mahomes, Hill, and Mayfield are all good QBs, but when it comes down to it, I have faith that Clutch Mason can pull off a win in just about any situation.

Now if we can just get QB1 in a courtroom with some MAC officials to get us one more win…..