Is There a Path To The CFB Playoffs For Oklahoma State?

Nate Silver, my dude.

He’s one of the few that warned of a potential Donald Trump upset on Tuesday, and now he’s propping up my wild, absurd hopes that Oklahoma State could enter the pool house door (it’s more obscure than the back door) into the CFB Playoffs.

His 538 site has created a tool that provides your team a path to the playoffs. It’s actually quite fun to mess around with. You can see how the percentages change based on future outcomes.

Right now Alabama, Michigan, Clemson and Washington all have a 50+ percent chance to make it into the playoff. Oklahoma State’s chances as of now are 3 percent according to 538.

What if you punch OSU winning out? Boom, goes to 21 percent.

And what if you punch a Washington loss in its next game. OSU goes to 26 percent.

And what if you add in West Virginia beating Texas next? It gets you to 28 percent.

You aren’t allowed to choose too many improbable outcomes or the model literally breaks, but if those three things happen (OSU wins out, WVU wins its next game and Washington loses its next game), here is what the percentages would look like.

Normally I would laugh at myself, but again our current president elect was a 250-1 long shot when he entered so crazier things have literally happened.

What you have to root for, I think, is total chaos in the Pac-12 that excludes them altogether. OSU (obviously) has to win out. You want Michigan, Clemson and Alabama to win out and for Ohio State, Auburn and Wisconsin to all lose. Of course a two-loss team has not made either of the first two playoffs, and I don’t foresee the first one coming from the Big 12 (of all conferences).

Kirby Hocutt on OkSt loss to CMU on final play: "We're viewing it as a loss. It's not within our purview to decide wins and losses."

— Chuck Carlton (@ChuckCarltonDMN) November 9, 2016

Louisville has to lose again. I don’t know — it’s completely improbably but not it’s not impossible which is sort of the game we’re playing at this point.

And either way the tool is a fun one to play with as we hurtle towards the college football postseason and whatever bowl OSU eventually does end up in. We’ll be keeping an eye on this over the coming weeks.

[h/t Eric Williams]